生计资本对黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计活动的影响及评价*——以甘肃省榆中县为例

［目的］通过深入研究黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计资本对生计活动的影响，为解决农村贫困问题，提升农户生计资本存量、实现区域可持续生计发展提供科学依据。［方法］文章以甘肃省榆中县为例，基于对榆中县农户的调查数据，采用熵值法分析了东北部山区、中部川区和西南部山区贫困人口的生计资本状况和生计活动方式，并对其生计活动进行评价。［结果］从农户的生计资本组合来看，榆中县整体自然资本和人力资本相对物质资本、金融资本、社会资本3类资本较为富裕，尤其在西南部山区和东北部山区3类资本缺乏型农户比例较高。中部川区各乡镇人口的总体生计资本状况较好，总指数最高，而西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，两者生计资本状况总体匮乏。农户的生计活动主要以种植、养殖和外出打工为主，生计活动多样性程度偏低； 中部川区人口的生计活动多样性指数最高，西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，且整体受教育程度偏低，加之物质资本、金融资本、社会资本缺乏进一步限制了当地农户的生计多样性。［结论］（1）针对不同生计资本水平和生计活动多样性程度偏低的贫困地区，需要进一步发挥民族文化产业扶贫优势，开启地域产业扶贫新模式，打造地域无公害特色农业产业品牌，提高农户物质资本边际贡献； （2）发展小额信贷金融服务，改善农户金融资本存量，预防村际农户金融资本二元极化； （3）实施免费教育培训技能学习，打造教育培训脱贫示范村，提高人力资本存量，缓解贫困人口生计压力等提高经济发展水平的扶贫政策措施。     

What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

Uncovering asset stripping during China's privatization

This paper empirically studies the occurrence and extent of asset stripping via undervaluing public assets during the mass privatization of state-owned and collectively owned enterprises in China. Using three waves of a national survey of private firms, we provide evidence that state-owned and collectively owned assets were substantially underpriced, indicating the presence of corruption during privatization. Further analysis shows that the extent of underpricing is more severe in regions with less market competition or weaker property rights protection, and more pronounced for intangible assets such as intellectual property rights and land use rights. When comparing firm efficiency between privatized firms and de novo private firms, we find that the former group continues to enjoy considerable preferential treatments, yet significantly underperforms the latter, possibly due to continued government control and intervention. Finally, we provide evidence that insider privatization is an important source of corruption during the privatization process.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

The Non‐Observed Economy in Portugal: The monetary model and the MIMIC model

This paper offers estimations for the Portuguese path of the Non‐Observed Economy (NOE), in the period 1970–2015, through two seminal approaches: monetary method and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. It is observed that the tax burden and social benefits are its main causes. Then, to get a more in‐depth understanding of the phenomenon, it provides a study of the Granger causality between the NOE and the official Gross Domestic Product (GDP), emphasizing the implications of the NOE on the Portuguese economy. Evidence has been found for the existence of bidirectional causality between the NOE and the GDP, suggesting that the formal economy affects the NOE, and conversely that the NOE affects the economic growth.     

Evaluation of workplace lactation support among employers in two Pennsylvania cities

A majority of mothers with infants less than 1 year old participate in the labor force. Employers can modify the physical and social environments at work to accommodate breastfeeding employees and enable continued participation in the labor force. The purpose of our article is to (1) characterize breastfeeding policies and programs currently offered at workplaces in two Pennsylvania cities and (2) identify improvement areas to support breastfeeding employees in the workplace. We partnered with two business groups on health in Pennsylvania and electronically administered a survey to their employer members. Responses were aggregated into a workplace lactation support score based on physical space, time, policy, and resources. Higher scores indicate that employers offered a large number of workplace lactation supports. We conclude by offering specific improvement opportunities that include a written policy communicated to all employees and the formal communication of lactation services. Employers can utilize workplace lactation support scores to elect interventions that are feasible for implementation in their organizations.     

地方政府债务空间与空间债务——基于地根经济的区位黏性视角

本文从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角，将地方政府性债务的李嘉图等价命题纳入新经济地理研究框架进行理论分析。为了进一步揭示理论模型的政策含义，采用空间计量方法验证沿海地区地方政府性债务的局部正相关特征。最优的债务政策取决于经济系统的初始条件，在非对称经济结构已经存在的情况下，单纯建设本地区的基础设施只会降低区域内的交易成本，这对于那些仅着眼于投巨资用于城市“硬件”建设的地方政府来说显然是一叶障目。建议依靠基础设施网络提高区域协同创新能力，培育规模报酬递增的专业化产业集群。     

Going abroad to play: Motivations,challenges, and support of sports expatriates

Professional athletes moving abroad for their career is a novel phenomenon in international human resource management (IHRM). This exploratory article charts the motivations of sports expatriates to move abroad to play, as well as adjustment challenges and sources of support. A survey was conducted with 77 professional athletes in 10 different sports. The main motivations to move abroad were interest to experience life abroad, followed by the search for new challenges. In terms of challenges, different coaching style and communication issues were most often mentioned. Support was mainly informal, through team mates rather than professional providers. Our article contributes to the literature because it is one of the first studies focusing on sports expatriates from an international HR perspective. Our study provides information on a vulnerable group of expatriates; they are young in age and under extreme performance pressure. Sports expatriates need all the support they can get, and yet, little professional support is offered.     

政府随机审计的动态博弈模型及政策启示

本文在一个三阶段动态博弈框架下，对政府随机审计过程中的政府审计机关与政府审计对象以及国家与政府审计对象之间的动态博弈特征进行了分析。分析结果显示：政府审计机关与政府审计对象之间存在一个纯策略纳什均衡，而国家和政府审计对象之间存在一个混合策略纳什均衡。政府审计对象接受国家实质性审计的概率是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数的单调递减函数，而政府审计对象的违规或不作为的概率分别是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数和政府审计对象的应尽义务或责任的单调递减函数，却是政府审计机关审计行为成本的单调递增函数。同时，结合研究结论和中国政府审计全覆盖的现实，给出了一些政策建议。